The Big Senate Picture

The Big Senate Picture
by kos
Mon Oct 18th, 2004 at 16:48:30 GMT
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/18/124830/90
Here's an overview for those who don't follow the ups and downs of the various Senate contests obsessively.

We start with a Republican advantage of 51-48-1 (with the independent caucusing with Democrats). We need a net gain of two seats to take back the Senate. We can hold it 50-50 if Kerry wins, but it would necessitate the same sort of power-sharing agreement Daschle wrestled out of the GOP in 2000. And such an agreement would close down the Senate. It would be better to either hold the Senate outright, or not have it so Kerry can run against Senate Republican "obstructionists" in 2006 and 2008.

Here are the battleground Senate seats, ranked by chance of switch. Oh, and I don't do "toss-up", as I find it a sort of cop-out, like "50% chance of rain"....