State-by-State Horserace

The Swift Boat Debate and the State-by-State Horserace
Bart Acocella
Interesting – I’m tempted even to say curious – numbers from the Zogby battleground poll. Bush has opened up a lead outside the margin of error in Ohio and West Virginia, while Kerry has inched ahead in Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee.

I don’t know exactly what to make of this, but I’ll posit something (because that’s what we do in the blogosphere), speculative and generalized though it may be.

Perhaps the focus on the Swift Boat accusations has muffled Kerry’s economic message, which figures to be well received in the manufacturing Rust Belt (Ohio and West Virginia). Meanwhile, in the South, where esteem for the military runs high, the Swifties’ message isn’t having the intended effect and is perhaps backfiring.

Just some thoughts. There is competing data that show, among other things, Missouri still in the Bush column and Kerry ahead in Ohio.

From Gadflyer at http://gadflyer.com/flytrap/index.php?Week=200435#663